SurveyUSA (10/27-28, likely voters, 10/13-14 in parens):
Kurt Schrader (D): 55 (51)
Mike Erickson (R): 31 (38)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
When Darlene Hooley retired, this open seat race in a D+1 district with a GOP registration edge was supposed to be a barnburner. It was… if by ‘barnburner,’ you mean Mike Erickson pouring gasoline all over his own barn and setting it on fire.
While the Democrats fielded one of their strongest possible candidates, Erickson has endured one PR disaster after another, all while watching the district’s GOP registration advantage disappear. Now he’s left watching the continually rising Obama and Merkley wave lift Schrader higher along with them, too. Oh well… he’ll always have Havana.
Hooley always seemed a little more vulnerable than she should be, maybe Schrader can lock it down for good.